The strategy in one sentence
Every weekday morning this system ranks ~1,500 funds by 3-month momentum, but only trades once a week, on Fridays, and manages a 10-position portfolio by fixed rules — new funds must earn their full size, losers that fall off the list get sold, and spare cash backs the leaders. No opinions, no forecasts. Tracked honestly below from day one.
Strategy track record · since Jul 10
Cash: 0.0%Model portfolio — 10 positions + cash
2026-07-10 → 2026-08-27 · indexed to 100
-8.8%
Paper trading marked to published NAVs (typically one day behind). Not a real account — not investment advice.
2026-08-21Rules updated: entry persistence, confirm-exit, weekly Friday execution
Why the rules changed on 2026-08-21
Between 2026-07-10 and 2026-08-20 the live portfolio fell from 100 to about 92.6 — not because the fund picks were wrong, but because the original rules bought the instant a fund entered the top 10 and sold the instant it left. Of 41 sells under those rules, only 8 were profitable — a 19.5% win rate — and 9 funds were bought and sold multiple times each, a classic whipsaw pattern. From 2026-08-21: a fund must persist on the list for 3 consecutive days before it's bought, and stay off the list for 14 continuous days before it's sold. Backtested over the same period, replaying the real historical rankings against real fund NAV data:
2026-07-10 → 2026-08-19 · indexed to 100
Not an exact replay of the SEK account above — several holdings are USD-denominated and this backtest can't capture that FX leg, so read it as a relative comparison of the two rule sets under identical data, not a promise of future performance. Also a thin sample (4–49 trades depending on the rule set) — the direction is the finding, not the exact percentage.
The top list · 3 months, daily NAV
#1 · LU0069152568
6d on list
+29.1%
#2 · LU1989766289
5/3d on list
+27.7%
#3 · SE0020677946
5/3d on list
+25.6%
#4 · FI4000188982
3/3d on list
+22.6%
#5 · LU1897414303
6d on list
+21.5%
#6 · LU0112497440
6d on list
+20.7%
#7 · LU0109394709
6d on list
+20.6%
#8 · LU0055631609
5/3d on list
+20.1%
#9 · SE0019176488
1/3d on list
+17.5%
#10 · LU0417597712
1d on list
+17.2%
Held but off the list · sold after 14 days continuously off it
entered 2026-07-10
0/14d off list
P&L
-12.8%
entered 2026-07-10
6/14d off list
P&L
-7.5%
entered 2026-07-27
0/14d off list
P&L
+1.7%
entered 2026-07-28
0/14d off list
P&L
-3.0%
entered 2026-08-03
0/14d off list
P&L
+2.7%
entered 2026-08-14
6/14d off list
P&L
+1.8%
entered 2026-08-17
0/14d off list
P&L
-2.2%
entered 2026-08-17
0/14d off list
P&L
+0.5%
entered 2026-08-18
0/14d off list
P&L
+0.6%
entered 2026-08-20
0/14d off list
P&L
+2.4%
entered 2026-08-20
0/14d off list
P&L
-0.2%
Trade log — every buy and sell
The list: each weekday morning, ~1,500 funds are ranked by 3-month return. The top 10 with at least 500M SEK under management form the list. A fund must appear on the list for 3 consecutive runs before it's bought — filters out single-day noise entries rather than chasing every list flicker.
The allocation ladder — size must be earned: every new fund starts at 5%, no exceptions. After a positive first week it's upsized to 10%; still listed but negative means it stays at 5% and is rechecked weekly. If it falls off the list it isn't sold immediately — it has to be continuously absent for 14 days first, so a short dip doesn't trigger a sale it would have recovered from. Only after its third week does a position become eligible for extra money, up to a 15% ceiling.
Cash management: the portfolio targets a 5% cash reserve. Cash above it is split between the 3 best-ranked holdings — but only within each position's ceiling; if the leaders can't take more, cash simply waits. When money is needed the priority reverses: new starters and upsizes are funded from cash first, then out of the boost. Base positions are never touched.
Sideways positions shrink: a full-size position that hasn't set a new profit high in 30 days has stopped making money — half of it is sold to cash. If it stays flat, it halves again a month later; if it starts performing, the clock resets and it keeps its size. A halved position can't receive top-ups again until it sets a new profit high.
Winners run: the ceilings only gate buying. A position that grows past its ceiling through performance is never trimmed.
Execution: weekly, not daily: the list is checked every weekday, but routine trading — reviews, new positions, upsizes, top-ups — only executes once a week, on Fridays. Real fund trades settle a few business days after the order, not instantly; cash freed by a sale isn't counted as spendable until it has actually settled, so one week's exits fund the following week's entries rather than the same week's. The emergency circuit breakers below still run every day.
Crash protection, three layers: (1) only funds with positive 3-month momentum qualify — in a broad crash the list empties and the portfolio de-invests by itself; (2) while the S&P 500 is below its 200-day average, all buying freezes — new positions, upsizes and top-ups wait, while the sell rules keep working; (3) if the portfolio ever falls 15% from its own high, everything goes to cash until the market recovers above trend.
Tracking: the curve compounds the portfolio's daily value using published NAVs (roughly one day behind live markets — that's how funds work). The record starts Jul 10: nothing backfilled, no backtest. What you see is what the rules actually did.